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"I'll remain in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, joking that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. In the hour before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his close ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was much longer than normal, had finished, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a kind of a reboot. Perhaps even just some relaxation with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the difficult tail end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are set to improve?

Party Concerns

The uncomfortable truth for the PM is that many of his party members think he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and get him out this year.

However Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "judged at the general election", insisting no one would remove his five-year mandate from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I plan to be at the forefront," he said.

The Spring Test

The issue for the PM is that he will be assessed long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But even though he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if a his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the voters was understandably eager for things to improve. He tried to persuade me, and the public, that this year would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the administration implemented during their initial choppy year began to take effect.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a new date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His core message is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite facing calls from many directions for a more decisive approach, with much more political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political trouble, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is hard, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing evident political risks as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be at ease with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "longtime champion of international law" but the public "just haven't got the full picture at the moment".

Critics called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has consistently been simmering pressure in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's heading in that direction, but his new specific pledge to move closer with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European market – will likely trigger howls that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the decisions that flowed from Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy some on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to